Could gang-rape protests mark beginning of an age of activism for India?

The large-scale protests triggered by the gang rape of a 23-year-old student in New Delhi has renewed debate over the rise of a new urban middle-class activism in India.
The strength and longevity of those protests, sustained as they were over several weeks and undeterred by police water cannons and teargas, took many by surprise. Student activism has generally been on the decline since the early 1990s, when the economy was liberalized, and the Indian urban middle-class is notorious for itspolitical apathy.
But the recent protests, coming on top of 2011’s massive anticorruption movement led by Gandhian activist Anna Hazare, has some commentators heralding a new social mobilization – one that is fueled by frustration with what is seen as an increasingly corrupt and out-of-touch political system, energized by a new generation of youth, and aided by both old and new media.
“A generation has come of age that has [previously] been linked to a class and an ethos that was supremely indifferent to anything but their own self-interest – consumption and making money,” says Aditya Nigam, a political scientist and senior fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi. He points out that this generation grew up in the 1990s, a period of economic liberalization that saw rising prosperity but also increased corruption – there have been several high-profile scams in recent years – that was perpetrated with impunity.
Demographics are certainly a factor in the recent protests. More Indians are entering the middle class anywhere between 70 million and 150 million, depending on the definition of middle class – and more now live in the cities.
They form the spine of support for the Aam Aadmi Party, launched in October by Hazare’s former deputy Arvind Kejriwal. This segment is believed to have contributed to the recent reelection of controversial right-wing leader Narendra Modi, who courted what he called the “neo-middle-class” in the state of Gujarat.
There is a “new force on the Indian political landscape,” wrote a commentator in a leading business daily. “The middle class has sensed that its period of political irrelevance is over, with its numbers growing at a phenomenal pace.”
India’s population is also disproportionately young, a feature that is associated with both increased productivity and social unrest. The median age in India is now 25, while the median age of a national politician is closer to 60 – a generational and cultural gap that has been on display in the past few weeks as political and civic leaders have blamed sexual violence on everything from English education to short skirts.
The generational shift is evident to Arjun Bali, a 42-year-old filmmaker who turned up with his toddler for a women’s rights protest in an upscale neighborhood in Mumbai on New Year’s Day. Mr. Bali said he was no stranger to protests – he had attended many as a college student. “The generationborn in the 1980s, they don’t know have the baggage or the fears” from, say, the Emergency, he says, referring to the period in the early 1970s when then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi suspended elections and suppressed civil liberties.
Another young protester, Pallavi Srivastava, personifies that difference. Like generations of middle-class Indians before her, the urban planner left the country to study in the United States in 2003, but unlike her predecessors, she chose to return after eight years because of improved economic opportunities and the chance to be a part of a society in the making. “Things are in flux here,” she says, holding a placard that reads, ‘I pledge to use public transport.’ “There’s a lot of energy, but what this nation is going to be, nobody knows yet.”
ROLE OF THE MEDIA
The protest she attended was organized through Facebook. Social media has been instrumental in mobilizing young outrage – Internet penetration is relatively low in India, but the bulk of the 135 million people online are under the age of 35. Still, the old media, especially English television news channels, have also played their part with wall-to-wall coverage: By contrast, a rally Tuesday of more than 1,000 slum-dwellers protesting the demolition of their homes as well as corruption in a government housing plan barely got any coverage.
In earlier years, Indian television largely presented the public as a mob, says Arvind Rajgopal, a media studies professor at New York University. “There was always this fear of law and order being violated but now the public is assumed to be on the side of the good,” he says.
“There is a simmering sense of injustice that the media is building on,” he adds, empowering "the sense that moral authority lies outside the political institutions.”
India has a history of effective social movements – the anti-Narmada dam movement of the 1980s, for example – but these have been mass movements dominated by the left.
The new activism isn’t allied to any political party, and whether it will be sustainable or effective without a unifying agenda or without reaching across caste and class barriers remains unclear.
Some have already criticized the recent protests for being incoherent and even displaying an authoritarian impulse – a charge also levied at the Anna Hazare movement.
“Their demands are very basic and undemocratic, they want immediate justice and have no understanding of democratic processes and constitutional requirements,” says Flavia Agnes, a lawyer and veteran women’s right activist with the group Majlis.
Those demands have included punishing rape with castration or the death penalty and fast track courts to try those cases – measures that women’s groups don’t necessarily support. Death penalties may deter reporting of the crime – most rapes go unreported, it is believed – and may cause the rapist to murder the victim, say many women’s activists. Ms. Agnes also opposes fast track courts, which she says is more likely to lead to “fast track acquittals.”
Only about 25 percent of rape cases resulted in convictions in 2010, and conviction rates were less than 10 percent in some states last year.
“What is needed are nonsensational, small measures,” says Agnes. “Getting women better access to the police station, getting the medical reports done sensitively.”
POTENTIAL TO BE TRANSFORMATIVE
Still, observers like Nigam believe the new movement has the potential to be transformative, even if it is temporary. Unlike the upper-caste youth protests of the late 1980s against affirmative action for lower castes in colleges, the present movement is not about “defending privilege” so much as “more general issues of governance and what is generally perceived to be a collapse of the rule of law and mechanisms of justice,” he notes. “The middle class is no homogenous and unchanging entity.”
Even Agnes believes that the protests are largely positive. Her group’s support program for rape victims has gotten new attention and a senior police officer recently called her for ideas to encourage women to walk into his police stations.
Meanwhile, one state party has pledged not to field candidates with rape charges – a third of national legislators have criminal charges against them, including two with rape charges.
“For some reason, this rape has caught the national imagination,” Agnes says. “If that means the government and police cannot ignore this issue anymore, that’s a good thing.”
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Fed split on stimulus plans nudges stocks lower

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks are fading into the close of trading on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve revealed a split among its policymakers over how long to continue an economic stimulus program.
The market started on a weak note Thursday following mixed holiday sales reports from retailers and the prospect of another fiscal fight looming in Congress over the nation's borrowing limit.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished down 21 points at 13,391. The Dow surged 308 points the day before, its biggest gain in more than a year.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost three points to end at 1,459. The Nasdaq composite lost 11 to end at 3,100.
Rising stocks outnumbered falling ones on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was 3.8 billion shares, above the recent average.
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Fed becoming worried about stimulus side effects

Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned about the potential risks of the U.S. central bank's asset purchases on financial markets, even if they look set to continue an open-ended stimulus program for now.
In a surprise to Wall Street, minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting, published on Thursday, showed a growing reticence about further increases in the central bank's $2.9 trillion balance sheet, which it expanded sharply in response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009.
"Several (officials) thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet," the minutes said, referring to the narrower group of voting Fed members.
Investors picked up on the report's hawkish tone, with stock prices drifting lower after the announcement, while the U.S. dollar extended gains against the euro. Yields on the 30-year Treasury bond hit 3.12 percent, their highest levels since May.
"The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting revealed a somewhat surprising level of concern among the ranks of central bankers regarding the long-term impact of the bank's asset purchase program, or quantitative easing," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington D.C.
Still, the Fed appeared likely to continue buying assets for the foreseeable future, having announced in December it was extending monthly purchases of $40 billion in mortgage securities and also buying $45 billion in Treasuries each month.
A few of the voting members on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee thought asset buying would be warranted until about the end of 2013. A few others highlighted the need for further large-scale stimulus but did not specify an amount or time frame.
Fed officials generally agreed that the labor market outlook was not likely to improve without further nudging from the monetary authorities.
QE "HEEBIE-JEEBIES"
The U.S. economy expanded a respectable 3.1 percent in the third quarter on an annualized basis, but growth is believed to have slowed sharply to barely above 1.0 percent in the last three months of the year.
Data on Thursday showed a solid gain of 215,000 new private sector jobs for December, while analysts polled by Reuters last week were looking for a rise of 150,000 new jobs in the Labor Department's official survey, due out on Friday.
Still, the minutes indicated worries about quantitative easing policies were spreading beyond the usual regional Fed hawks who, like Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, have opposed additional Fed easing.
"What's clear from these minutes is that there is little consensus among the members of the FOMC on how long asset purchases should carry on," said Jason Conibear, trading director at Cambridge Mercantile.
"Some members want more accommodation for as long as it takes, some want more but to start winding it down while others have got the heebie-jeebies about the size of the balance sheet."
In the December meeting, the Fed also launched a new framework of policy thresholds, numerical guideposts that are supposed to give markets and the public a clearer idea of how policymakers will react to incoming economic data.
Officials say they will keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent for as long as estimates of medium-run inflation do not exceed 2.5 percent.
The minutes suggested it took officials some time to build a consensus around the idea.
"A few participants expressed a preference for using a qualitative description of the economic indicators influencing the Committee's thinking," the minutes said.
U.S. unemployment has come down steadily after hitting a peak of 10 percent in late 2009, but remains elevated at 7.7 percent.
Fed officials noted worries about the looming "fiscal cliff," which was dealt with only partly in an agreement earlier this week, were hurting the confidence of businesses and households.
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Stocks fade after Fed discloses split on stimulus

A two-day rally in the stock market came to an end Thursday afternoon when an account of the Federal Reserve's last meeting revealed a split between bank officials over how long the Fed should keep buying bonds to support the economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index treaded water for much of the day, then slid into the red around 2 p.m. Eastern, after the Fed released the minutes from its December meeting.
The Dow ended with a loss of 21.19 points at 13,391.36.
The S&P 500 lost 3.05 points to 1,459.37 and the Nasdaq composite fell 11.70 to 3,100.57.
At last month's meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee, the central bank pledged to buy $85 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-backed bonds and also keep a benchmark interest rate near zero until the unemployment rates drops below 6.5 percent.
On Thursday, the minutes from that meeting showed Fed officials were divided over the bond purchases. Some of its 12 voting members thought they should continue through this year, while another group thought they should be slowed or stopped much earlier. Just "a few" members saw no need for a time frame, according to the minutes.
"It's pretty surprising," said Thomas Simons, market economist at the investment bank Jefferies. "I think everybody thought there was broad agreement on policy, but now it seems like few of them really wanted to vote for it."
The stock market opened on a weak note after retailers reported mixed holiday sales and as the prospect of a new budget battle in Congress loomed. UnitedHealth Group led the Dow lower. The insurance giant's stock fell $2.55 to $51.99 after analysts at Deutsche Bank and other firms cut their ratings on the stock.
"It's natural to relax a bit after such a huge day as yesterday," said Lawrence Creatura, who manages a small-company fund at Federated Investors.
The Dow soared 308 points Wednesday, its largest point gain since December 2011. The rally was ignited after lawmakers passed a bill to avoid a combination of government spending cuts and tax increases called the "fiscal cliff."
That deal gave the market a jump start into the new year. The Dow and the S&P 500 are already up more than 2 percent.
"We're off to a very strong start," Creatura said. "The dominant reason is the resolution of the fiscal cliff. But January is usually a strong month, as investors all shift money into the market at the same time. When the calendar flips, it's as if you're allowed to begin the race anew."
Economists had warned that the full force of the fiscal cliff could drag the country into a recession. The law passed late Tuesday night averted that outcome for now, but other fiscal squabbles are likely in the months ahead. Congress must raise the government's borrowing limit soon or be forced to choose between slashing spending and paying its debts.
In other Thursday trading, prices of U.S. government bonds fell, sending their yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.90 percent from 1.84 percent late Wednesday, a sign that some bond traders believe the Fed minutes hinted at an early end to its bond buying.
Family Dollar Stores sank 13 percent after reporting earnings that fell short of analysts' projections. The company also forecast a weaker outlook for the current period and full year. Family Dollar's stock lost $8.30 to $55.74.
Nordstom Inc. surged 3 percent after the department-store chain reported strong holiday sales, especially in the South and Midwest. Nordstrom's stock was up $1.64 to $55.27.
Among other stocks making big moves:
— Transocean jumped $2.96 to $49.20. The owner of the oil rig that sank in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 after an explosion killed 11 workers reached a $1.4 billion settlement with the Justice Department.
— Hormel Foods, known for making Spam and other meat products, said that it's buying Skippy, the country's No. 2 peanut butter brand, from Unilever for about $700 million. Hormel's stock jumped $1.19 to $33.20.
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How the Dow Jones industrial average fared

A two-day rally in the stock market came to an end Thursday afternoon when an account of the Federal Reserve's last meeting revealed a split between bank officials over how long the Fed should keep buying bonds to support the economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 21.19, or 0.2 percent, to 13,391.36.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 3.05, or 0.2 percent, to 1,459.37.
The Nasdaq composite index lost 11.70, or 0.4 percent, to 3,100.57.
For the week:
The Dow is up 453.25, or 3.5 percent.
The S&P 500 is up 56.94, or 4.1 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 140.26, or 4.7 percent.
For the year:
The Dow is up 287.22, or 2.2 percent.
The S&P 500 is up 33.18, or 2.3 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 81.06, or 2.7 percent.
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Data-feed glitch leaves some traders in dark on Nasdaq prices

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A technical glitch caused an outage of around 15 minutes on real-time prices for Nasdaq listed stocks, including Apple Inc and Google Inc , for many investors on Thursday, traders and multiple industry sources said.
Nasdaq said at 1:42 p.m. in an alert to traders that it was investigating an issue involving the Universal Trading Platform's (UTP) centralized securities information processor (SIP) data feeds, which consolidate and display market data for Nasdaq-listed securities from all trading venues.
Shortly after, Direct Edge, the No. 4 U.S. equities exchange, said it had halted trading in all Nasdaq order books. It said about 10 minutes later that all trading had resumed.
U.S. exchanges and alternative trading systems use UTP to quote and trade Nasdaq stocks. Those that do so must provide their data to the SIP for data consolidation and dissemination to traders that subscribe to the data feed.
The outage meant that continuous quotations and continuous last sale information from all market centers trading Nasdaq-listed securities was unavailable to as many as 2.5 million traders, said Eric Hunsader, founder of trading software and technology firm Nanex.
NYSE-listed securities, which are on a different data feed, were unaffected.
Hunsader said the reason behind consolidated feeds was to make market data affordable to the average investor.
Traders can also subscribe to direct data feeds from exchanges, rather than relying on the consolidated feeds. The direct feeds were unaffected by the UTP outage.
"This is a great example of the two-tiered market that we have developed," said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of trading at Themis Trading.
"There are the 'haves,' who subscribe to all of the private data feeds and various hardware and software and spend a ton of money, and then there are the 'have-nots,' which are the public who rely on the SIP," he said.
Data on quotes from the UTP SIP were stopped showing from 13:37.24 to 13:48.19, and data on trades were out from 13:36.55 to 13:51.14, said Hunsader, who maintains a blog where he posts frequently on sudden, computer-driven moves in markets.
A Nasdaq spokesman declined to comment. Spokesmen for Direct Edge and NYSE Euronext had no comment, and a spokesman for BATS Global Markets, the No. 3 U.S. equities exchange, was not immediately available.
In September, Big Board operator NYSE said it would pay $5 million to settle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after software issues and compliance failures allegedly led to some of the exchange's customers receiving access to market data faster others.
The SEC said at the time that early access to market data can lead to "a real and substantial advantage."
An SEC spokeswoman declined to comment on the UTP issue on Thursday.
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On cusp of new year, Chavez's health keeps Venezuleans fixated on future

Dec. 31 is typically a time to recap the biggest events of the year. But in Venezuela this year, news that President Hugo Chavez has suffered “new complications” after surgery on Dec. 11 has kept Venezuelans anxiously fixated on what’s to come in 2013.
In downtown Caracas, an annual free concert in Plaza Bolivar to welcome the New Year has been canceled, government officials said. They instead called on Venezuelans to unite in prayer for the prompt recuperation of President Chavez, according to the Venezuelan daily El Universal.
President Chavez underwent surgery in Cuba on Dec. 11 for a recurrence of cancer. Since then, the nation has been faced with uncertainty about his chances for recovery, whether he’ll be able to attend his Jan. 10 inauguration – after winning a fourth presidential election in October – and if not, who will be Venezuela’s new president.
Recommended: Hugo Chávez 101: a quiz about Venezuela's president
That uncertainty increased a notch after Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro went on television to say the following (translated into English by VenezuelanAnalysis): “Nineteen days after having undergone his surgical intervention, President Chavez’s state of health continues to be delicate; he has presented complications that are being attended to with treatment that is not without risk.”
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Venezuela is, of course, not alone in looking at what lies ahead in 2013. US President Barack Obama and US Congress are scrambling to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff,” as they try to hammer out an agreement on taxes for the wealthy and budget cuts. And across the world, as the Monitor wrote in a round-up, nations are hoping that in 2013 they can bridge such political divides, some of them deadly. Venezuela, in hoping for more unity, was included on that list. But for now it is a nation holding its breath.
David Smilde, a guest blogger for the Monitor, told the Associated Press that the fact that Nicolas Maduro, the nation’s vice president, traveled to Cuba to personally meet with the president in recent days is itself telling. “The situation does not look good. The fact that Maduro himself would go to Cuba, leaving Hector Navarro in charge, only seems understandable if Chavez’s health is precarious,” said Mr. Smilde, who runs a blog on Venezuela for the Washington Office on Latin America.
The trip likely gave Mr. Maduro a chance “to be able to talk to Chavez himself and perhaps to talk to the Castros and other Cuban advisers about how to navigate the possibility of Chavez not being able to be sworn in on Jan. 10,” Mr. Smilde said. “Mentioning twice in his nationally televised speech that Chavez has suffered new complications only reinforces the appearance that the situation is serious.”
If Chavez does not recover, there are many questions about what is next for the oil-rich, Andean nation that has been dominated by Chavez since he took office in 1999.
According to the Venezuelan constitution, translated into English by the BBC, here is what should happen:
Article 231: The president-elect shall take office on January 10 of the first year of their constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly. If for any reason, (they) cannot be sworn in before the National Assembly, they shall take the oath of office before the Supreme Court.
Article 233: (...) When an elected President becomes absolutely absent prior to inauguration, a new election...shall be held within 30 days.
Article 234: When the President is temporarily unable to serve, they shall be replaced by the Executive Vice-President for a period of up to 90 days, which may be extended by resolution of the National Assembly for an additional 90 days.
But recently, a Chavez ally and head of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, said that the inauguration should be delayed – a move that the opposition has declared unconstitutional and casting doubt on what will happen. In the meantime, all of the problems that face Venezuela are on hold, as another guest blogger for Caracas Chronicles describes in his own personal experience here.
Chavez and his government, however, are trying to maintain a semblance of order – with Maduro sending out New Year’s greetings and avoiding mention of the radical changes that could await the nation in the year to come.
“Commander Chavez wanted us to transmit a special end of year greeting to Venezuelan families, who are gathered together over this period throughout the country; in particular he wanted to send a warm embrace to the children of Venezuela, and remind them that they are always in his heart," he said. "The embrace was extended to all of our people, so that they see in the year 2013 with love; a year which should bring the greatest of happiness to our homeland, as well as the definitive consolidation of our independence and national unity.
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